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Just For You
The Nasdaq's Historic Rally Doesn't Mean the Risk Is GoneReported by Bridget Bennett. Published: 4/19/2026. 
Key Points
- Chaikin Analytics rates software and cybersecurity stocks as sectors to sell into this rally, citing AI disruption from models like Claude Mythos as a structural headwind for legacy names.
- Seven stocks across semiconductors, construction and engineering, optical networking, and mining earn bullish ratings, though Chaikin recommends waiting for pullbacks before buying.
- The S&P 500 is approaching all-time highs after a historic Nasdaq 100 rally, but Strait of Hormuz uncertainty could trigger a reversal.
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The S&P 500 hit a new all-time high, and the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ: QQQ), which tracks the Nasdaq-100, notched its longest streak of consecutive higher closes on record. Many investors are asking the same question: is it safe to buy now? Marc Chaikin, founder of Chaikin Analytics and creator of the Power Gauge stock rating system, says the answer depends on where you look. The rally is real, but risks still lurk beneath the surface.
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Chaikin sees a market running on hope that could stumble at the first sign of disappointment. A Rally Built on Ceasefire Hopes—Now Getting a Reality CheckThe catalyst for the market's V-shaped recovery was last week's announcement of ceasefire negotiations related to the Iran conflict. That news pushed the S&P 500 through both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages in a single session, clearing resistance that had capped prices for weeks. At the time of Chaikin's analysis, neither pillar of the bull case was firmly in place—no agreed-upon ceasefire terms existed, and the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed to normal commercial traffic. Since then, the situation has shifted: an Israel-Lebanon ceasefire has taken effect, and Iran's foreign minister declared the Strait "completely open" for commercial vessels for the duration of the ceasefire. Whether that progress holds is the open question. Chaikin's broader point still applies: markets that climb on optimism are vulnerable when the details disappoint. The Strait may be open today, but the underlying conflict is far from resolved. 2 Sectors Worth Trimming: Software and CybersecurityRather than chasing the rally, Chaikin views this as a window to prune weak positions—and two sectors top his sell list. Software stocks, which once made up roughly 16% of the S&P 500, now account for about 8%. Names like Salesforce (NYSE: CRM), Atlassian (NASDAQ: TEAM), and Adobe (NASDAQ: ADBE) have underperformed the broader market for more than nine months. The Power Gauge rates many of these names bearish, and Chaikin's proprietary money-flow data shows persistent institutional selling. Structurally, advances in AI—from Anthropic to OpenAI to Google and Meta—are putting pressure on the SaaS business model that powered these stocks for two decades. Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) doesn't escape scrutiny. The stock carries a neutral Power Gauge rating and remains more than 20% below its October peak despite rallying from under $360 to above $400. Chaikin views Microsoft and the Magnificent Seven more broadly as legacy beneficiaries now facing competitive headwinds from the next wave of AI innovation. Cybersecurity is the other sector Chaikin would trim. Palo Alto Networks (NASDAQ: PANW) has been in a clear downtrend, and the bearish case goes beyond technicals. Anthropic's Claude Mythos Preview—announced earlier this month—demonstrated the ability to discover thousands of zero-day vulnerabilities across major operating systems and browsers, exposing flaws that legacy cybersecurity firms had certified as secure. That kind of disruption creates a credibility problem for incumbents: if AI can find the back doors existing platforms missed, the market will eventually reprice who deserves to own the cybersecurity franchise. Semiconductors: Bullish, But Buy the PullbackThe semiconductor sector has been the backbone of this rally, and Chaikin remains constructive on the group—with a caveat. These names have run too far, too fast to chase at current levels. NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) is recovering after a sharp drawdown, and Chaikin acknowledges it as the dominant force in AI chips. Still, the more compelling opportunities may sit further down the supply chain. Lam Research (NASDAQ: LRCX) is critical to semiconductor manufacturing, holding near-duopoly positions in etch and deposition equipment. The stock has rallied sharply, but a pullback toward its moving averages could offer a cleaner entry. Onto Innovation (NYSE: ONTO) specializes in quality control for semiconductor manufacturing and has carried a bullish Power Gauge rating since last August. Shares have surged from around $100 to above $280, but Chaikin says a retreat toward the stock's 21-day average would make it attractive again. B. Riley recently raised its price target on the stock to $310. The AI Buildout's Picks and ShovelsBeyond chips, Chaikin is focused on the physical infrastructure powering AI—the construction, cooling, and data-transport layers of the buildout. Quanta Services (NYSE: PWR) has built power plants and cleared land for electric utilities for decades. With AI data centers demanding massive new power capacity, Quanta sits at the intersection of energy infrastructure and AI demand. The stock recently hit an all-time high near $596, so patience for a pullback is warranted. Comfort Systems USA (NYSE: FIX) handles the cooling and HVAC systems that keep data centers operational—a constraint that tightens as compute density rises. The company has delivered roughly 35% quarterly revenue growth and shows strong profitability relative to peers. Inside data centers, moving information at speed is the bottleneck. Optical-networking stocks have been on fire. Chaikin recently took a quick 15% profit in Coherent (NYSE: COHR) after a two-week hold; the stock has continued climbing and recently hit an all-time high above $310 after being added to the S&P 500 in March. Ciena (NYSE: CIEN) is another name in this space, with first-quarter revenue up 33% year over year and raised full-year guidance to as much as $6.3 billion. Both are names Chaikin would look to re-enter on a pullback. Copper, Not Silver, Fuels the WiringRaw materials matter. Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX) is the world's largest publicly traded copper miner, and copper is essential to the fiber-optic wiring and internal infrastructure of data centers. The stock has carried a bullish Power Gauge rating since last year and recently set a new all-time high near $70 before pulling back. Freeport also has a major mine currently offline that is expected to come back into production this fall—a potential catalyst that could add meaningful supply to a copper market already running tight. Stay Disciplined as the Market Tests New HighsThe setup is compelling: AI demand is real, the infrastructure buildout could last five years or more, and these seven names sit at critical points along the supply chain. But with the S&P trading at all-time highs on ceasefire optimism while the Strait of Hormuz remains contested, Chaikin's message is clear—don't chase the rally. Identify the stocks doing differentiated work, wait for pullbacks, and let discipline do the heavy lifting. |
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